One Cigarette Is All It Takes

More than two-thirds of people who try 1 cigarette become daily smokers, a recent meta-analysis showed.

Using the Global Health Data Exchange, the researchers identified 2776 surveys of the general adult population that had been published after the year 2000 and had asked questions regarding smoking ever trying a cigarette and ever smoking daily. Following further screening and assessment, 8 surveys (n=216,314) allowed extraction or estimation of relevant information and were included in the final analysis.
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Survey response rates, sampling methods, and data collection procedures were analyzed to determine the quality of each survey. Random effects meta-analysis was used to pool proportions.

Findings indicated that 60.3% of respondents had ever tried a cigarette, of whom 68.9% subsequently progressed to daily cigarette smoking. The researchers noted that survey response rates had varied (45% to 88%), and that survey methods had aligned well with the best practice in this field.

“Over two-thirds of people who try one cigarette become, at least temporarily, daily smokers,” the researchers concluded. “The finding provides strong support for the current efforts to reduce cigarette experimentation among adolescents.”

—Christina Vogt

Reference:

Birge M, Duffy S, Miler JA, Hajek P. What proportion of people who try one cigarette become daily smokers? a meta-analysis of representative surveys [Published online November 4, 2017]. Nicotine Tobacco Res. https://doi.org/10.1093/ntr/ntx243.